Year-end woes

Year-end will be tough for direct to consumer businesses:
  • Cardboard lead-times are getting much longer 
  • Delivery (UPS/FedEx/etc.) are projecting capacity constraints despite adding 99K people since February) 
  • Staffing in warehouses are under pressure (they added 28K jobs in October – but there is some relief in the form of small, highly automated “neighborhood” warehouses in places like Brooklyn NY
 
Some B to B businesses are seeing challenges too: 
  • Finding an export container is increasingly hard as they are needed back in China for high-value goods.  Low-value exports like soybeans are having to wait
  • In the metals area (e.g. Steel, Aluminum, Nickel), transaction Insurance, normally held by Banks and suppliers, is much more expensive as worries about default rise