The “new order" in energy:
"The new order promises to make the energy trade less efficient and more expensive, potentially putting commodities at the center of the next global economic crisis” former Treasury official -- Zoltan Pozsar.
So, oil is no longer freely traded — hence it will be more expensive/less efficient to transport. (Think of the costs of shipping by pipeline from Russia vs. an oil tanker from Saudi Arabia)
The world in 2022 and beyond will look a lot different than this:
In the short term, OPEC+ has agreed to boost output by ~650,000 barrels/day for July and August. That is ~0.6% of the daily consumption. Seems good on paper, but the assumption is Russia will pump another 170,000 barrels which are unlikely.
Next week… how the US is holding back production.