The International Energy Agency (IEA) says global refining capacity decreased by 730,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2021—the first decline in global refining capacity in 30 years.
In the United States, refining capacity has decreased by about 1.1 million b/d since the start of 2020. The only exception to declining refining capacity is ExxonMobil’s Beaumont, Texas refinery, which plans to increase its capacity by 250,000 b/d by 2023.
Limited capacity pressures pricing so refiners are making more money—i.e. what they make for processing a barrel of oil into its various components (called the crack spread) is up dramatically
Here is the breakdown of the cost of diesel:
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, 7/11/2022.
And the volume of truck freight hit a record in June according to the ATA. Demand up + supply down = higher prices.
Future delivery prices are an indication of the direction the market may go. They specifically exclude all taxes.